The Big Orange

RUSSIA: Pensioners protest

The opposition coalition Other Russia applied for permission to hold a mass demonstration on Triumphal Square for Aug. 31 but was denied. The government said another event was planned for the square on that date. Other Russia leaders vowed to hold the demonstration regardless.

Five hundred pensioners blocked the main street in Ufa on Aug. 27 to protest the decision of the city to repeal the rights of senior citizens from traveling on public transportation for free. The mayor met with the protesters and accepted their demands to maintain their benefits. The protesters immediately returned home victorious.

MOLDOVA: Political crisis likely to continue

The new parliament will convene on Aug. 28, one day before the deadline. Even though the Communist Party still holds the most seats, for the first time it is in the minority. The four other opposition parties have formed a coalition, but they do not have enough votes to form a new government either without Communist Party assistance.
　
The Communist Party has made it clear it will not support the presidency of opposition leader Marian Lupu. Some party leaders called Lupu a "traitor" promoting "a radical nationalist agenda." The standoff could mean the political crisis will not be resolved soon.
　
Outgoing President Vladimir Voronin made a trip to meet with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Sochi on Au. 21. Since Voronin's time as president is only days more, why would he find it necessary to meet with the Russian leader? Is he looking for support to force the continuation of his administration?

GEORGIA: United States pledges support

President Mikhail Saakashvili declared in an interview on July 20 that the plans for Georgia to join NATO are "almost dead" as a result of the Russian invasion last year. "It means the Russians fought for the right reasons," Saakashvili added.

With the UN monitors being forced out of the conflict zone by a Russian veto vote, the Georgian government has turned to the United States to send monitors to the border regions so the truth of continuing Russian aggression will be known. The European Union already has 246 monitors, but is barred from entering the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Ten members of the youth organization "Join" were arrested on July 21 for illegally demonstrating and blocking the entrance to the parliament building. Saakashvili was attending parliament that day to participate in national debates. Two were immediately released, and one paid a large fine. The other seven received 13-day jail sentences.

During his address to parliament, Saakashvili announced some reforms. He proposed some changes to the Central Election Commission and a greater role for the opposition in running public television. He also called for the direct election of the Tbilisi mayor, who is currently appointed by the government, and moved municipal elections up six months to the spring of next year. He made these concessions demanded by the opposition in order to unify the country, as parts of it are still being occupied by Russian troops.

Georgia officially protested the visit to South Ossetia by Russia's top security officials. Russia's prosecutor general, interior minister and emergencies minister visited South Ossetia on July 21. Georgia called it another provocation and another attempt to lend legitimacy to the independence of the region. Russia "is ignoring the generally accepted norms and principles of international law," the statement reads. Only Russia and Nicaragua recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden visited Georgia on July 23 and vowed that the United States stands behind them in their struggle. Biden earlier visited Ukraine on a tour to reassure the two countries after talks with Russia to "reset" U.S. relations with that country.

"I come here on behalf of the United States with a simple, straightforward message: We, the United States, stand by you on your journey to a secure, free and democratic, and once again united, Georgia," Biden said to a standing ovation.

Biden also said Georgia should not use force to retake South Ossetia and Abkhazia. "It's a sad certainty but it is true, there is no military option to reintegration, only a peaceful and prosperous Georgia," he said. "(Show) those in Abkhazia and South Ossetia a Georgia where they can be free and their communities can flourish."

He also called on the international community to continue its refusal to recognize the independence of the two regions and for the withdrawal of Russia troops.

Even though Russia insists that it will not allow the rearmament of Georgia, the United States remains committed to the NATO membership of Georgia, which would include its rearmament, said State Department official Philip Crowley. Saakashvili reportedly asked for anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons from the United States to defend against another invasion by Russia.

REGION: Reversals for democracy

Freedom House released its latest 2008 Nations in Transit report, which concluded that democracy diminished in 18 of 29 countries rated. Central Europe and Eurasia experienced huge setbacks in their democratic development, according to the report.

Georgia and Ukraine are described as "hybrid regimes" that continue to show authoritarian tendencies. Armenia and Moldova are described as "semi-consolidated authoritarian regimes." Kyrgyzstan and Russia rejoined Belarus, Azerbaijan and the rest of Central Asia as "consolidated authoritarian states."

Azerbaijan reportedly experienced the greatest setback in democratic development. The report concluded that the democratic Rose Revolution (Georgia) and Tulip Revolution (Kyrgyzstan) were fully reversed.

GEORGIA: Ongoing protest

Protesters blocked the rails at the capital's railway station on May 26.

Opposition leader Eka Beselia warned that the blockade was just a "warning" on how the opposition could bring the country to a stop if President Mikhail Saakashvili continues to refuse to resign. The opposition ended the blockade the following morning, claiming that they had received notice that police were going to disperse protesters blocking the main thoroughfare in Tbilisi and needed to reinforce that demonstration.
 
The leaders of a dozen opposition political parties gathered together on May 27 to discuss how to move forward with the mass protests. Some of the leaders, such as former UN Ambassador Irakly Alasaniya, spoke out against recent tactics of blocking the rail system and threats of bringing the national airport down. They wanted to keep the protests non-violent and legal.

Others are siding with opposition leader and former parliamentary speaker Nino Burjanadze, who asserted, "There is no government in the world that can be changed just with nice statements. Very active steps are needed to change the leadership of this country."

Meanwhile, Orthodox Patriarch Ilia II called on the opposition to drop their demands for the resignation of President Saakashvili and appealed to the government to call early elections.
 
A much smaller crowd numbering around 300 gathered outside the Sports Palace on May 28 and began a march through the city in light rain. They gathered outside the mayor's office and vowed that this edifice would be a new target for protesters since it houses supporters of Saakashvili. Having shut down the parliament, the crowds are now attempting to shut down the city government as well.
 
Later that day several protesters attacked and stabbed five police officers near the parliament building. Seven protesters were also seriously injured as police fought back, receiving broken legs and cracked heads.

UKRAINE: President Yushchenko to seek re-election

President Victor Yushchenko said in an interview on April 15 that he would seek re-election. He also said that if parliamentary elections were held simultaneously, he would run for a seat there as well as a backup if he loses the presidency.

"I will be taking part in both elections," Yushchenko said. "I know that behind me are millions of people who share my values. If I change my mind, these people will see that as a sign of weakness or betrayal, a refusal to finish something that has been started."

He may just have to settle for parliament, since a recent poll showed he would receive less than 3 percent of the vote. Former Prime Minister and Orange Revolution adversary Victor Yanukovych is the most popular choice for president with 25.6 percent support.

Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko is second with 14.4 percent. But her popularity is diving fast as the Orange Revolution supporters are tired of both her and Yushchenko fighting all the time. A rising star, former parliamentary speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk has risen in the polls with 13.6 percent support.

RUSSIA: Afraid of protests

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov strongly condemned the protesters in Moldova. Russia's sharp criticism of the riots in Moldova reflects their real fear of such protests occurring in their own country amidst a growing economic crisis.
 
About 300 protesters gathered in the far Eastern Pacific port city of Vladivostok to protest military reforms that will reduce the number of officers and military units in the Russian armed forces. The protesters were mainly retired military officers. They felt the reforms would badly hurt Russia's defenses.
 
Another 200 protesters gathered in Vladivostok to protest the increase in the import tax on foreign cars. They also criticized President Dmitry Medvedev's and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's leadership.

The police, who outnumbered the protesters, ordered them to disperse. The protesters put away their banners and demanded to be allowed to stay put since they were not breaking any laws. The police moved in and arrested 10 protesters before the crowd dispersed.

UKRAINE: Counter-revolution gains steam

On April 3 Anatoliy Hrytsenko, chairman of the parliamentary committee on national security and defense, called on Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko, President Victor Yushchenko and Victor Yanukovych to agree not to run for president and put their energy into solving the financial crisis.

The national currency (hryvna) has lost 40 percent of its value. Hrytsenko is considered a likely candidate himself for president.
 
Yanukovych's Party of Regions then turned on Timoshenko and blocked the parliament doors with chairs and swarmed the podium on April 3 to stall a vote on the necessary legislation to receive the $16.4 billion International Monetary Fund loan. An economic crisis works in their favor, so they hope to block the loan to increase their chances of retaking power.

A mass rally in support of Yanukovych was also held on April 3. Yanukovych had hoped for a crowd of 50,000, but he had to settle for 20,000. Half of the crowds blocked the Parliament, and the other half blocked Timoshenko's offices.

Another 2,000 were also demonstrating in front of the President's office. The crowds were demanding the ouster of President Yushchenko and condemning how the Orange Coalition has handled the financial crisis.

Yanukovych addressed the crowds and also called on the president to dissolve parliament and declare early parliamentary elections as well. He is betting on the financial crisis hurting the Orange coalition so his pre-Russian forces can gain even more seats and choose the next prime minister. The day ended with the protest remaining peaceful.
 
Under pressure from the mass protests, it seems that President Yushchenko has been a little spooked and reversed his opposition to early presidential elections as long as parliament agreed to simultaneous early parliamentary elections. By siding with Yanukovych here, he hopes to gain a little revenge on Timoshenko.

UKRAINE: Counter-revolution gaining steam

President Victor Yushchenko proposed a constitutional change on March 31 that would split Parliament into two houses similar to the U.S. model.

The lower house would have short terms and be responsible for fiscal policies and day-to-day legislation. The upper house would have longer terms and be responsible for government appointments.

The president would also gain the right to veto legislation. (Currently he can only place legislation on hold while he challenges the law in the constitutional court). The proposed constitution that would be voted on by referendum would also strip parliament members of their immunity from prosecution.

Opposition leader Victor Yanukovych scoffed at the proposal and called it "the last words of a president on the way out." Yushchenko said it was the only way to move forward with a parliament that spends more time blocking the rostrum and fist fighting than actually passing laws.
 
Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko denied that she is in conflict with her Orange ally Yushchenko and expressed her desire to cooperate with him. These were nice words, but the following day she joined with Yanukovych and together led parliament to set an early date for presidential elections on Oct. 25. Yushchenko had wanted an election in January 2010, when his term officially ends.
 
Parliament moved up the election to prevent Yushchenko from disbanding parliament. Election law forbids the president to disband parliament less than six months before a presidential election.

Timoshenko and Yanukovych are the two top contenders for the next presidency, and they feared that Yushchenko would try to disband parliament to cause chaos and win back support for himself. But with less than 5 percent support, Yushchenko is the most unpopular sitting president in the world.

Yushchenko probably would not have attempted to run himself, but promote a candidate from his party, and dissolving parliament would take away Timoshenko's and Yanukovych's advantage. By moving the election up, they took this option off the table from Yushchenko.
 
President Yushchenko has declared the move by parliament illegal and will challenge the decision in the constitutional court. But a protracted battle in the courts will do immense damage to the already worse economic crisis in Europe. Ukraine desperately needs a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but with the political chaos the IMF is unlikely to give the loan.

UKRAINE: Away with All

President Victor Yushchenko only has the power to nominate two ministers, and one of those is foreign minister. His previous foreign minister was Volodymyr Ogryzko, who was also a casualty of the Timoshenko-Yushchenko feud.

Yulia Timoshenko joined with Victor Yanukovych and forced his resignation after he had criticized Russia harshly for its invasion of Georgia. Disappointingly, Timoshenko has recently taken a more conciliatory tone with Russia.

On March 17, Yushchenko nominated Oleg Shamshur, ambassador to the United States, as his new foreign minister. It is not certain whether parliament will approve the nomination.
 
President Yushchenko called for a political truce on March 21 in order to resolve the economic crisis that Ukraine faces.
 
The "Away with All" civic group continues its demonstration in Kyiv, calling on all politicians to go. They have set up a tent village reminiscent to the Orange Revolution, but without attracting crowds of sympathizers.

On March 20, a bus approached the tent city, and about 100 hooligans in camouflage uniforms exited the bus and stormed the tent city, driving the protesters away. Several protest leaders were hurt, and many tents were destroyed. Brochures began circulating later that day, blaming the police for the action.

The slow police response only added to the speculation. But the fact that the brochures were being distributed in less than a day is evidence that this was planned by an organization that wanted to turn public sentiment against the police.

 A bizarre twist in the fight between Timoshenko and Kyiv Mayor Leonid Chernovetsky saw the mayor stripping down to his Speedos to prove he is not crazy. Deputies from Timoshenko's bloc offered to pay for a psychological examination of Chernovetsky because of his many antics in defiance of Timoshenko's attempts to oust him from office.

He recently fired the director of the zoo for failing to find a female elephant to mate with their male elephant. He vowed to take control of all the animals and would personally congratulate them on various holidays. He also released a CD of popular Soviet songs from the 1980s.
 
Chernovetsky thought the best way to prove his mental stability was to show he is physically fit. So he stripped down and ran a 400-meter track, followed by 15 pull-ups, and then finished off with a swim. He then emerged from the water and flexed his muscles for the camera. If that does not prove his sanity, nothing will!