The Russian invasion of Georgia in August caused a ripple effect across the region, and Moldova was not immune.
With the Georgian withdrawal from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the successor to the Soviet Union that is controlled by Russia, the issue of Moldova's membership in the CIS was again placed on the table. This is a tricky situation for Moldova, since it also has a large breakaway republic that has Russian "peacekeeping" forces present.
Angering Russia by withdrawing from the CIS would only embolden Transnistria in its call for independence. And then when Russia recognized the independence of the two breakaway regions in Georgia—South Ossetia and Abkhazia—the Transnistrian officials began calling for Russia to recognize them as well.
The pro-CIS factions have the upper hand for now, stressing that the situation in Moldova is not similar to Georgia. They note that Georgia has taken an aggressive approach to unite its breakaway republics, and that Moldova has been working with Russian and European intermediaries for a peaceful solution.
They also stressed that the Transnistrian conflict is a Russo-Moldova conflict and should not involve the other leaders of the CIS. The latest CIS conference was held in Moldova in November, and it was decided not to bring this issue to the full membership. Moldova remains within the Russian-controlled CIS for now.
But the Georgian conflict did wake up Europe and brought its attention back to resolving the Transnistria conflict, which is currently its closest world conflict, being only 100 kilometers from the border of the EU. This conflict undermines the territorial integrity of Moldova, threatens the security of Ukraine and EU-member Romania and complicates the relationship between the EU and Russia.
The EU approach has been to develop closer ties with Moldova by easing visa regulations and increasing monetary assistance to Moldova, and at the same time by instituting a travel ban on Transnistrian officials and assisting Moldova and Ukraine in closing their borders to prevent smuggling in and out of Transnistria.
The EU hopes by isolating Transnistria and opening up to Moldova, that Transnistria will see the benefits of becoming part of Moldova again.
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