The Big Orange

UKRAINE: Our Ukraine coalition fading fast

The Reforms And Order Party, a member of the Our Ukraine bloc (OU), became another in a long line of parties that have defected from the president’s bloc since Yulia Timoshenko’s party left when she was fired as Prime Minister. The People’s Rukh of Ukraine, another important OU bloc member, said the only way it would agree to forming a coalition with the Anti-Crisis Coalition is if they agreed on a complete dismantling of the government, which is not going to happen.

With Our Ukraine breaking up fast, the delegates gave the Anti-Crisis Coalition 10 days to complete their proposal for a Grand Coalition by meeting their demands.

Victor Yanukovych responded by dropping a bomb on Sept. 14 when he was making a state visit to Brussels. In violation of his constitutional role as Prime Minister, he again played President by meeting with NATO officials and then announcing that Ukraine was postponing its consideration of integration with NATO because the country was not yet ready for such a move. Our Ukraine immediately criticized Yanukovych for violating the National Unity Accord. President Victor Yushchenko also criticized Yanukovych’s statement, saying he was wrong in saying that it is not in the national interest of Ukraine to discuss NATO integration at this time. But it was his chief of staff who had the courage to criticize Yanukovych for overstepping his constitutional authority as Prime Minister and interfering in foreign affairs.

Meanwhile, Timoshenko has shown her spunk and her never-give-up attitude. She had been surprisingly quiet lately until she dropped a bomb of her own. The constitution requires that the Prime Minister and his cabinet resign all parliamentary seats within 20 days of taking their new offices. Timoshenko quietly waited until that timeframe had passed and then declared the government illegitimate. A week later Yanukovych and his cabinet resigned from their parliamentary seats. Timoshenko vowed that her opposition would be an extensive opposition and will watch Yanukovych and his allies closely. "We will not be friends [either with the parliament or the government]," she said. "We will be a genuine opposition, which would not allow any fact to be concealed."

Yanukovych’s coalition responded by passing a bill reopening the investigation of criminal activity of Ukrainian Unified Energy Systems that was once led by Timoshenko and former Prime Minister Pavlo Lazarenko. Members of Timoshenko’s bloc tried to stop the voting on this bill by grabbing the microphone from Deputy Speaker Adam Martynyuk.

Timoshenko’s party is also experiencing some setbacks, though. Three of its members voted to leave the opposition and join the ruling coalition. Timoshenko claimed that they were bribed into switching allegiances, but did not provide any evidence for those allegations.

One bright note about the Orange Revolution was found in the annual country report from Freedom House, which keeps track of political freedom. Ukraine, not including the Baltic States, was the only former Soviet state that received a rating of “free.”

UKRAINE: Completing the betrayal of the Orange Revolution

The one highlight in the campaign against corruption has come not from within Ukraine, but from the U.S. government. Former Prime Minister Pavlo Lazarenko had embezzled millions of dollars while in office and then fled to the United States for protection when he lost favor with former President Leonid Kuchma. The U.S. government immediately arrested him because he had used American banks to hide his stolen funds. He remained under house arrest since 1999, living in his luxurious home in Beverly Hills, which he purchased from comedian Eddie Murphy.

As a result, most Ukrainians felt that justice in America was no different from justice in Ukraine. But Lazarenko was being kept comfortable as a bargaining chip with President Kuchma. Lazarenko had threatened that if he went to trial, he would expose the illegal activity of Kuchma and his cronies. The constant threat of a public trial that could potentially embarrass President Kuchma internationally was enough to win concessions from Kuchma. But now that Lazarenko is no longer of value to the U.S. government, his trial has finally concluded, and he received a $10 million fine and nine years in prison.

One of the key questions in Ukraine is whether the President’s Our Ukraine bloc will complete the betrayal of the Orange Revolution and join in a coalition with Prime Minister Victor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions. The leaders of the various political parties that make up Our Ukraine have been meeting to discuss this possibility. Volodomir Stretovich, the leader of the Christian Democratic Party, vowed that his party would leave Our Ukraine if such a deal with the Party of Regions is made.

Their main objection is not with the Party of Regions, but with another member of the ruling coalition, the Communist Party. Our Ukraine had announced on Aug. 3 that it would join a Grand Coalition with the Party of Regions, the Socialist Party and the Communist Party under the condition that they sign a National Unity Accord that stipulates their support of European integration. Now that the Accord has been signed, the delegates are meeting to complete the drafting of the coalition agreement.

Before the coalition agreement could be completed, the whole Grand Coalition saw signs of unraveling. Yanukovych, who had signed the National Unity Accord that set the course toward membership in the European Union and NATO, had already violated the spirit of the accord. It started with his appointment of Grigoriy Ilyashev, who is opposed to NATO integration, as head of the Ukrainian delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. Then in his first speech in Parliament, Yanukovych pledged to continue the move toward European integration, but stressed that closer ties with Russia would also be on his agenda.

UKRAINE: Yushchenko's questionable war on corruption

President Victor Yushchenko knows that the campaign for President in 2010 has begun. He must convince the electorate that he was not a failure and disappointment. The best way he can show that is by keeping one of his most important campaign promises—a war against corruption. He really hurt his image as crime fighter when he fired former Orange ally Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko for her investigations into corruption of his friends. So, he has a long way to go to reverse this perception.

Yushchenko met with Interior Minister Yuri Lutsenko, a member of his ruling coalition, and asked him to more aggressively investigate any connections between criminal activity and government officials. It was an implicit threat to Yanukovych that he should behave. Yushchenko then submitted several anti-corruption bills to parliament for their approval. These initial bills define corruption at all levels with specificity. They will be the foundation for many more anti-corruption bills coming from the President.

Of course, two high-level cases of corruption remain unsolved—the poisoning of Yushchenko during the 2004 presidential campaign and the murder of journalist Georgiy Gongadze. Yushchenko announced on Sept. 8 that the investigation into his poisoning is only one step away from “solving the case.” Prosecutor General Oleksandr Medvedko also announced that investigators have determined the time, place and circumstances where the poisoning had taken place.

The only missing piece of the puzzle is whodunit. But the government has been saying for two years that the solution is just around the corner. And with the most likely candidate behind the poisoning now sitting in the Prime Minister seat, it is unlikely to be solved anytime soon.

Concerning the murder of Gongadze in 2000, Lutsenko said the prosecutors lacked the “political will” to solve the case. On Sept. 16, the six-year anniversary of the murder, Yushchenko again promised to do everything in his power to solve this case. But his power is diminishing every day.

UKRAINE: Yanukovych consolidates his power

The government of Victor Yanukovych has begun its work, and much of it has been consolidating the power of the Prime Minister over the President. The following is a glimpse of what has happened so far, and an indication for the future.

Yanukovych needs to move quickly to show Ukrainians they made a mistake by supporting the Orange Revolution in order to consolidate his power. And the best way he can do that is to move closer toward Russian hegemony and in return receive a promise to freeze, or even lower, the cost of natural gas. The problem with any emerging democratic country is that it first hurts the pocketbooks of the people on the street, before it greatly benefits them in the future. And with a malicious Russian neighbor to the north who controls all the gas and oil, it only exacerbated the problems faced by the Orange allies. The Orange government was forced to double the cost of natural gas and triple the cost of gasoline at the pump.

So, the first thing Prime Minister Yanukovych did was travel to Sochi to meet with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov to discuss the tête-à-tête. And he threw a bone to the West by promising that he would also review the shadow company RosUkrEnergo, which won the tender to transport all the natural gas to Ukraine.

His trip to Sochi may have had to do with more than just the price of gas, though. Also meeting in Sochi were Russian President Vladimir Putin and the presidents of Belarus and the Central Asian nations discussing the creation of a free economic zone, which has the potential of ushering in another version of the Soviet Union. Since Yanukovych came back with no news about gas, it is obvious he was there to represent Ukraine in this new alliance, even though foreign affairs is the constitutional sphere of the President, not the Prime Minister. But Yanukovych already has been acting as if he is both President and Prime Minister.

The only agreement that came out of Yanukovych’s talks about natural gas was an agreement to refill Ukraine’s underground gas storage facilities so that Ukraine has enough gas to make it through the next winter in case Russia again decides to turn off the spigot for more money. Yanukovych again threw a bone to the West by promising not to steal any oil that passes through the pipelines from Russia to Europe as they cross the territory of Ukraine. But this statement only embarrassed Ukraine because it was an implicit confession that Ukraine had stolen oil in the past.

AZERBAIJAN: Political infighting and paralysis

The government continues its campaign of stopping all forms of protest, no matter what the reason. Two large protests have occurred over the past few months, both quickly dispersed by police. The first protest was against Iran, which has been bolstering the Shiite Muslim sect throughout the world. The second protest was held against Israel for its invasion of Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the main opposition political party Musavat has been paralyzed by infighting. Following the October 2003 presidential elections several opposition leaders, including Musavat deputy chairmen Rauf Arifoglu and Arif Gacili, had been arrested and received five-year prison terms. They were all pardoned in the spring of 2005. Since their release, they have been at odds with other party leaders who were not arrested. Arifoglu has accused another deputy chairman, Sulhaddin Akper, of collaborating with the government officials. But he has never produced any substantiation for the charges.

In May, Isa Qambar was reelected Musavat Party Chairman unopposed for a third term, even though party rules prohibit a third term for that position. Gacili announced that he would run for chairman of the party governing council against Akper and former First Deputy Chairman Vurgun Eyyub. Gacili removed himself from the race after Arifoglu convinced him that his candidacy would only split the party. But later Arifoglu said he would quit the party if either Akper or Eyyub were elected. He claimed that Akper was a government plant who was a former member of the secret police, and that Eyyub was incompetent. His threat was successful, because neither candidate received the necessary 60 percent vote to be elected to the office.

Akper, who did receive 58 percent of the vote, vowed to run again for the office, claiming that he had been smeared by Russian intelligence and had no connection with the ruling regime. Eyyub, who received 40 percent of the vote, also dismissed the arguments against Akper and promised not to run again and throw his support behind Akper.

AZERBAIJAN: Open season on journalists

Opposition journalists are not safe in Azerbaijan. Amnesty International’s annual country report on human rights was highly critical of Azerbaijan because of its crackdown on opposition activists, politicians and journalists. Bahaddin Haziyev, the editor of a major opposition paper, was attacked and severely beaten up on May 25. Haziyev said that five men in two cars had blocked him while he was driving home, dragged him out of his car and beat him unconscious outside the capital. He probably would have died if some local residents had not found him and brought him to a hospital.

Another opposition journalist, Sakit Zakidov, was arrested in June on charges of heroin possession. He had been critical of the president’s administration in his weekly column. His newspaper said that Zakidov had no history of drug addiction and claimed the drugs had been planted by the police. Suspiciously, the arrest came only three days after a panel discussion on media freedom had been held by the ruling government party. During that discussion, party Executive Secretary Ali Akhmedov had urged the government to take actions against Zakidov.

“No government official or parliament member has avoided his slanders. Someone should put end to it,” Akhmedov said. Zakidov’s defense lawyers have not been given any evidence against their client and have not been allowed to see the videotape made during Zakidov’s arrest.

The editor-in-chief of another opposition paper, Shakin Agabeili, was sentenced to one year in prison for slander against Parliament member Arif Ragimzade. Agabeili had run against Ragimzade in last year’s parliamentary election, and this seems to be punishment for that “crime.” Another libel suit has been opened up against the paper for an article linking Ragimzade with gang leader and former government minister Haci Mammadov.

AZERBAIJAN: Murders and intrigues

Elmar Huseynov, an opposition journalist in Azerbaijan, was gunned down outside his apartment in March 2005. The Big Orange reported back then that this murder might be the beginning of a democratic revolution like the George Gongadze murder was in Ukraine. To prevent this, the government must find a scapegoat to take the blame. It seems they have finally done that.

A few days after Huseynov’s murder, 20 members of a gang led by former head of the Criminal Investigation Department of the Interior Ministry Haci Mammadov were arrested for several high-profile assassinations. The government investigated whether Mammadov had any connection with the death of Huseynov, but quickly cleared him of any involvement. Mammadov has been on trial for leading a gang of assassins for over 10 years. On July 25 of this year, Mammadov made a surprise confession during his trial of organizing the murder of Huseynov on orders from then-Economic Minister Farhad Aliyev.

Aliyev had been arrested in October 2005 on charges of embezzlement and plotting a coup against the Azerbaijani government. He claims that he was threatened that if he did not plead guilty to those charges, he would also be implicated in the murder of Huseynov. Since he refused, he claims the government is now falsely implicating him in this murder. A close friend of Huseynov defended Aliyev by telling the media that Aliyev and Huseynov were not enemies. He said it was true that Huseynov considered Aliyev corrupt like all Azerbaijani government officials, but Huseynov had been positive toward Aliyev’s personal investment in the economy. The whole thing smells corrupt.

Immediately following Mammadov’s admission of guilt, the government started an investigation of Aliyev’s involvement in the murder. The Prosecutor General reported that Mammadov’s telephone number was found in Aliyev’s personal telephone book. So what? You would think that the head of the Criminal Investigation Department would be in the telephone book of the Economic Minister.

Most likely Mammadov made a plea bargain with the government. He had already been on trial for leading a gang of assassins over a period of 10 years, so what would one more murder matter? Reporters Without Borders warned prosecutors and judges to be suspicious of the confession. The big question is how Mammadov could operate his gang for 10 years without any government knowledge.

TURKMENISTAN: Beat the press

Two members of the Bulgarian-based Turkmen Helsinki Foundation (THF), established in 2003 to watch the human rights situation in Turkmenistan, and a reporter with Radio-Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) were arrested in June. During interrogation, they were reportedly beaten beyond recognition. Another person, whose only crime was being related to the chairman of the THF, was also detained along with three children of the RFE/RL reporter. After Human Rights Watch made their plight international news, these four were released on July 1. The purpose was a message to the public not to oppose the regime.

The remaining three under arrest had reportedly made a visit to Ukraine, and Turkmen authorities accused them of receiving training by those who had instigated the Orange Revolution. Two diplomats, a French Embassy official and a representative of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), were also charged with spying in the case. They were protected by their diplomatic immunity from arrest.

The first to be arrested was THF member Annakurban Amanklychev on June 16. She had been under surveillance by authorities for over a year, having been accused as a traitor in foreign pay and causing unrest in the country. The authorities claim they found guns and explosives in her car, but another THF member reported that he saw the authorities place an unidentified package into her car.

Two days later, authorities appeared at the apartment of RFE/RL reporter Ogulsapar Muradova. Muradova is a former member of THF. There was no arrest warrant, and police told her family she was simply being taken for questioning. That evening, after midnight, the police called the family and ordered two of her girls to bring them their mother’s computer and fax machine. The children refused and were subsequently arrested with their brother. A colleague, who managed to talk with Muradova on the phone, reported that her speech was incoherent, possibly the result of psychotropic drugs. The other two were detained the same day, also without arrest warrants.

All seven have been denied used of toilets and visits by family members. Information has also leaked out that the authorities were using drugs to extract confessions. The two THF members received a seven-year prison term, and Muradova received a six-year sentence in late August.

On Aug. 8, Turkmenistan celebrated its 15-year anniversary since independence from the Soviet Union. President Saparmurat Niyazov announced during the festivities that all government ministers would receive a new Mercedes Benz as a gift from the state. Regional chiefs (governors) would receive a jeep, but that would be upgraded to a Mercedes Benz if they bring in their cotton harvest early. So, not everyone is suffering in Turkmenistan.

TURKMENISTAN: Still a dictatorship

Turkmen President-for-life Saparmurat Niyazov has nothing to fear except his own poor health. He has virtual control over his whole country. The New Statesman weekly recently placed Niyazov in its list of the Top 10 dictators in the world.

Freedom House issued a Nations In Transit report for 2006 in mid-June. Turkmenistan scored an abysmal 6.96 out of a potential 7 in a democratization rating system developed by Freedom House where 7 indicates a complete absence of democratic practices and the rule of law. Niyazov ignores the constitution as he continues to build a personality cult around himself. Any government reforms he does initiate only serve to centralize his own power further.

Niyazov’s book, Ruhnama (Book of the Soul), is on par with the Koran and is required reading for all students and government employees. They frequently are forced to take exams of their knowledge of its contents in order to remain in their school or posts. Both major religions, Islam and Orthodox Christianity, are relentlessly repressed. Any other unregistered religious gatherings experience frequent police raids that result in detentions and fines. Elections are manipulated at the top levels with flagrant ballot-box stuffing and door-to-door visits for supervised voting.

The Freedom House report rated Turkmenistan’s local governance and electoral process both at 7, which mean they are both non-existent. The citizens of Turkmenistan have no idea what life is like outside their little world since the government controls every aspect of the media. The report scored independent media at a 7, as well as judicial independence. The latter means that the courts have no freedom. And with the economy becoming more and more a personal fiefdom of the president, the corruption score has also fallen to 6.75. It is hard to imagine a more repressed people than the Turkmen.

KYRGYZSTAN: Will true democracy ever come?

On top of Kyrgyzstan's crime problem, a military exercise nearly got out of control as well. The exercise was originally to have been conducted by unarmed troops outside the parliament building. But just before the exercise, the parliament ordered the Defense Ministry’s main communication directorate to vacate its offices within the parliament building because they were $12,500 behind in paying their electrical bill. So, in a show of strength, the military held an armed exercise instead to remind the government that they could stage another revolution.

Parliament has called for the prosecution of General Zamirbek Moldoshev, who led the exercise. The General downplayed the whole situation and said it was only an exercise.

U.S. diplomats got in trouble the second week in July. The Kyrgyz government claimed that the two diplomats had “inappropriate” contact with non-government organizations (NGOs). The U.S. government responded that this was just a signal to Western countries not to promote democratic reform within this region of the world.

On Aug. 9, the Kyrgyzstan government announced that it would defy international law and extradite five Uzbeks who had been granted refugee status by the United Nations. The Uzbeks were part of the Andijan protest that turned into a massacre by the Uzbek government in May 2005. The U.S. and EU have both condemned the extradition.

Despite all these problems, the EU still had words of praise for the Kyrgyzstan government since the Tulip Revolution overthrew the previous regime. "We [understand] the difficult situation which currently [the] Kyrgyz Republic is facing and welcome the earnest efforts of Kyrgyz authorities to address the problems such as widespread corruption and organized crime," the statement read. But privately, EU officials say that there is a world of difference between the democratic revolutions of Georgia and Ukraine, compared to Kyrgyzstan.

Only time will tell whether true democracy will come to this country that is currently overrun by criminal gangs.